This POWDER ALERT is for TUESDAY, DECEMBER 22ND.

It’s been a tough month. Dry and cold. Then dry and warm. And most recently, warm and wet. But things are changing dramatically today as a vigorous cold front slices through the Northwest. Behind the front, the air is much colder. Snow levels will fall from near 6,000 feet in the early morning to as low as 1,000 feet tonight. With plenty of showers moving in behind the front, we’ll get our first opportunity to ski/board in high-quality, dry and fluffy new powder in over a month. Tuesday is the day.

Here are some specifics:

For the north and central Oregon Cascades…
Expect 6 to 12 inches of new snow between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning.

For the southern Oregon Cascades, Siskiyous and the Blue Mountains in northeast Oregon…
Expect 4 to 8 inches of new snow between late Monday night and midday Tuesday.

There will be some strong west winds with this storm system, so the new snow will not be evenly distributed. Deeper stashes of snow are likely on the leeward (east-facing) bowls and slopes. Exposed areas above the tree line may get wind-scoured, so the snow will be best in the trees.

This Monday/Tuesday storm is a one shot deal. Looking ahead to the rest of the holiday week, sunshine and dry weather will return from Wednesday through Christmas Day. Beyond Christmas, the computer models become wishy-washy – but most models indicate mainly dry conditions continuing.

Enjoy, and Happy Holidays!

Drew Jackson
KPTV FOX 12 meteorologist

Check out www.SkiOregon.org for current conditions at all Oregon Ski Areas!

Ride the endless winter!

The 2009-2010 snow season is off to an amazing start! And since the weather looks promising for even more snow, I am issuing my first POWDER ALERT of the season for this SATURDAY MORNING!

The weather pattern looks ideal Friday and Friday night. A weather system dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will initially bring snow early Friday. But as colder air arrives Friday afternoon, and as another snow-producing weather feature arrives from the northwest, significant snow is likely in the Cascades Friday evening. And with the snow level falling to as low as 1,500 feet, it means that the powder at the higher ski areas will range from moderate density to drier, higher-quality fluff. Not bad for November!

So… how much snow will fall? Below are my forecast probabilities for the period from Friday morning to Saturday morning:

More than 6″… 95% likelihood
More than 12″… 50% possibility
More than 18″… 20% chance

Saturday will be mainly dry… so get up there early to enjoy the fresh tracks. And while my POWDER ALERT is specifically for SATURDAY MORNING, there will be significant accumulating snow during the day Friday as well.

Enjoy!

Drew Jackson
KPTV FOX 12 meteorologist

Check out www.SkiOregon.org for current conditions at all Oregon Ski Areas!

In the Pacific Northwest, El Nino winters are typically a little warmer than usual. But the amount of rain and snow is a lot more variable. For example, at Mount Hood Meadows, their second-snowiest winter on record occurred during an El Nino winter. But one of the most disastrous snow seasons on record, the winter of 2004-2005, was also an El Nino winter. Those are two extreme examples. Most El Nino winters bring snowfall that is not too far from average, with the extreme winters being rare (and impossible to predict in advance).

One positive aspect of El Nino winters is that more often than not, the snow tends to arrive early in the Cascades. I believe we’re seeing that this year. That big late October snowstorm dropped nearly two feet of snow at the higher ski areas, but warmer rain immediately following the storm melted the snow away. That’s the way it works in October, as the snow comes… and goes. But November snow typically grows… and stays! And while this most recent storm brought enough snow to open some runs at Timberline and possibly Mt. Hood Meadows later this week, all Oregon’s ski areas, are starting to build a healthy base. And with more storms on the horizon, the start of the 2009-2010 skiing/boarding season appears imminent!

So… wax your boards and get your gear organized. And keep checking your e-mail, as my first “Powder Alert” could hit your inbox anytime now!

Think snow,

Drew Jackson
KPTV FOX 12 meteorologist

Editor’s Note: Sign up for Powder Alerts by visiting Ski Oregon

A new storm arriving Wednesday night will bring increasing snow to the Cascades and Blue Mountains. The heaviest snow will fall Thursday morning, but nearly continuous snow is likely all the way through Thursday night.

Snowfall totals should be close to 2 feet from Wednesday night through Friday morning!

Initially, the snow will be a little wet, as the freezing level will be near 4,000 feet early Thursday. However, the freezing level will fall during the day Thursday, dropping to 1,500 feet by Friday morning. The snow will become increasingly dry and fluffy from Thursday afternoon into the evening. Thursday will be the stormy, snowy and powdery all day… Friday will be calmer & drier with fresh powder in the morning.

Enjoy the endless winter!

Drew

A new storm system will drop into Oregon from the northwest on Saturday bringing heavy snow showers. While there will be some temporary breaks in the falling snow, I expect nearly continuous snowfall from Saturday morning through Monday morning – with a storm total of 20-30 inches likely!

The snow level will be no higher than 1,500 feet into early next week, and with temperatures at the ski areas in the teens to low 20s, this new snow will be about as light & fluffy as it gets in the Northwest.

Similar to the last storm, this coming storm will feature the heaviest snow in the north Oregon Cascades and the Blue Mountains in northeast Oregon. But the mountains in central and southern Oregon will get significant snow too.

High winds are a possibility again, however, so there will be heavy drifting…and lift operations will likely be affected at higher-elevation ski areas.

Enjoy!

Drew

A storm system will drop into Oregon from the northwest on Thursday bringing heavy snow. Steady snow will increase during the day with 12-18 inches of new snow likely by the time the storm dies out Friday morning.

The snow level will lower to 2,000 feet later Thursday, so the snow will not be too wet or thick.

While Thursday will be increasingly snowy, Friday is likely to be the bigger powder day, as significant new snow is expected Thursday afternoon and evening. (Night skiing Thursday night should be EXCELLENT!)

In this weather pattern, the heaviest snow will be in the north Oregon Cascades (Mount Hood area) and also the Blue Mountains in northeastern Oregon. But central and southern Oregon will get their share as well – just not quite as much as the northern and eastern areas.

Enjoy!

Drew

Between now and Wednesday, there will be several inches of new snow… but the snow level will be a little higher than I’d like to see it. It’ll bounce around between 3,000 and 4,500 feet over the next couple days. While that’s low enough to allow the precipitation to fall as snow at all of our Oregon ski areas, the temperatures will be 27-33 degrees… which means that the new snow will be a little wet & heavy. The heaviest snow through Wednesday is likely to be in the central Oregon Cascades (Hoodoo, Bachelor, Willamette Pass.)

Beginning later Wednesday, the situation will improve. My POWDER ALERT is for WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. The snow level will lower – down to 1,500 feet by Friday morning – so the snow quality will improve with ski area temperatures in the teens to mid 20s. There should be 8-15″ of new snow (at all ski areas) from later Wednesday through Thursday… and this will be on top of the several inches of wetter snow that is expected to fall before Wednesday. Lastly, there won’t be much wind with the storms this week… so there won’t be much blowing or drifting snow this time around. Just deep powder spread evenly throughout the ski areas.

Enjoy!

Drew

Overall, the weather pattern is going through a significant change – from super-stormy to super-serene. Starting next week, high pressure takes control over the Northwest – meaning that blue sky, sunshine, and calm winds will prevail nearly every day next week. We’ll have a little bump in the road to pass over this weekend, however, as a weak weather system slides through Sunday morning. A few light rain or wet snow showers are possible Sunday – otherwise it looks dry and pleasant for most of the week ahead.

Enjoy the snow!

After a wild couple of weeks (and a nasty weekend in the mountains), the weather is returning to “normal” – meaning lots of rain in the lowland valleys… and lots of snow in the higher elevations. Tomorrow looks excellent with 1-2 feet of new powder awaiting us. The top 6 inches should be of excellent quality, as temperatures will fall into the upper teens or low 20s late tonight into tomorrow morning. The snow level should lower to 1,500 feet by tonight. For up to the minute conditions, check out the Ski Oregon conditions page or follow us on Twitter.

Looking further ahead, there are several storms lined up in the Pacific – and they’re aimed right at the Northwest. The freezing level is going to bounce up and down with each arriving and passing storm, so watch the forecast closely, as the timing of each arriving weather system will determine when the freezing level rises and falls.

Enjoy the powder,

Drew

A powder day at Ski Anthony Lakes; credit: Jerry Kreig

This is truly my first POWDER ALERT of the 2008-2009 season… and the POWDER ALERT is for this THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18TH.

A cold and wet weather system will drop into Oregon from the northwest on Wednesday. Snow begins in the mountains (and lower elevations too) in the morning, so Wednesday will feature new snow as well. But the snow will likely add up 8-12″ deep by Thursday morning, making that day a great one for powder lovers. Hopefully, with the additional snow, ski areas will be able to open additional terrain.

Looking further ahead, there is another storm on the horizon that is due to arrive this weekend. The computer models are all over the place in their prediction about the forecast snow level, but I personally believe there will be significant new snow in the mountains again this weekend.

For up-to-the minute updates, check our conditions page at Ski Oregon or follow us on Twitter.

Enjoy the powder,

Drew